Jalen Hurts & the Future in Philly
Philadelphia’s season has come to end in blowout fashion at the hands of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite the loss, many feel the Eagles are a head of schedule. After all, this is Head Coach Nick Sirianni’s first season running the Eagles. They have their young quarterback, Jalen Hurts, starting at the extremely valuable rookie deal. Trading Carson Wentz in the offseason had provided the Eagles with the Colt’s 1st round choice in 2022, and a 2021 draft day trade with the Miami Dolphins resulted in the Eagles’ having Miami’s first round choice as well. A team in rebuilding mode made the playoffs with a young quarterback and has three first round picks in the 2022 NFL draft. This seems almost like a perfect situation.
Yet all is not 100% well with Philadelphia. Yes, they went to the playoffs with a young quarterback, but there is concern about how good their Jalen Hurts actually is. Hurts went 8-7 as a starter in 2021, missing 1 game due to injury and another due to rest in meaningless Week 18 loss to Dallas. Hurts averaged slightly under 210 passing yards per game, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, & Sam Darnold are names that appear just ahead of Hurts. Not good.
But Hurts has the added benefit of rushing yards, Eagles fans and Hurts apologists will mention. A deeper dive into Hurts stats don’t make him look any better. He finished with a below average passer rating of 87.2, just behind Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Davis Mills. How about completion percentage? Hurts is in the bottom third again, just ahead of Mayfield and Darnold but behind Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz. Yards per passing attempt? Right at the league average at 7.3. But even that looks bad for Hurts on a deeper look. Other quarterbacks that operate run heavy offenses had higher yards per attempt. Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Lamar Jackson all ran relatively similar run heavy offenses, all ranked above Hurts. Whether in volume or efficiency, Hurts looks to be average at best. His QBR (which normalizes quarterback performance based on passing and running) was 48.8. A perfectly average QBR is 50.
Philadelphia has decided to commit fully to Hurts. After a strong performance in un understudy role, backup Gardner Minshew asked what he could do to supplant Hurts as the starter. Sirianni reportedly said there was nothing Minshew could do, Hurts was their guy. This commitment to the starter, while admirable, looms as potentially foolhardy. There is no evidence that shows Hurts is anything more than an average QB. Average QB play leads to average results (see Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings). The Eagles would be wise to take a deeper evaluation of Hurts heading into the offseason. If Hurts can’t improve his play, then they run the risk of wasting the golden opportunity in front of them due to their draft capital they have acquired.