Trevor Lawrence’s Rookie Season Brings Hope & Worry
It’s easy to forget how bad Trevor Lawrence was in 2021. After all, his first NFL head coach, Urban Meyer, was a disaster of epic proportions. Meyer experienced an NFL career’s worth in scandals in just 13 games including not flying with the team, getting caught in a compromising situation, and not being believable or sincere in his speeches to his players. And that was all over one weekend! Meyer’s failings provided cover for the Jaguars as they limped through an awful season. They started 2-11 before Meyer was fired. Jacksonville then limped to a 3-14 finish.
As bad as Meyer was, an arguably just as large a contributor to the Jaguar’s poor record was Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence wasn’t just bad at quarterback, he was arguably the worst in the NFL. Lawrence finished 31st out of 31 in Yards Per Passing Attempt. In passer rating he finished 30th out of 31, in completion percentage he finished 29th, and in QBR he finished 28th. He tied for the league lead in interceptions. The list goes on and on; there isn’t a passing stat that looked good for Lawrence.
There are a few positives that Jaguars fans can try and focus on. Lawrence did maintain a level head and professional demeanor. He never once lashed out in the media or appeared immature. You could make an argument that he had the most stressful and volatile work environment of any starter in the NFL, but you would never know it how Lawrence carried himself. Lawrence also managed to power through and start all 17 games, despite a terrible offensive line and heavy workload. Other young quarterbacks on similarly bad teams, such as Zach Wilson and Justin Fields, failed to make it through the entire season without at least missing some time due to injury. Lawrence’s toughness and durability should be commended.
On top of that, there were some flashes of Lawrence’s potential. Take this Touchdown pass to DJ Chark:
These kind of plays are staples in any NFL offense. Lawrence fakes a handoff to his left and the two linebackers aggressively attack downhill to play the run. The slot receiver runs his route behind those linebackers. It’s meant to be a fairly simple concept. Fake the run, the linebackers step up, throw it behind them. But the secondary does a decent job handling it. By the time the slot receiver cleared the zone and was in the middle of the field, the deep safety was reacting to him, taking that throw away.
That left Lawrence with another receiver, 50 plus yards away down the left sideline. With the corner trailing and the safety still on that side of the field, most teams would call that receiver covered, due to the degree of difficulty of the throw. Lawrence’s arm talent allowed the Jaguars to overcome that difficulty. After rolling to the right and stepping up, Lawrence fires a 50 yard dart to Chark. If he doesn’t throw it on a line, the safety likely undercuts it. If he tries to put more air under the ball, Chark likely runs out of real estate or has to fight through the safety or the trailing corner to make a play. Lawrence instead throws the right type and distance, and the result is a touchdown.
Those are the kind of throws that give sleepless nights to defensive coordinators. The defense played everything nearly to perfection, but next level arm talent overcame it. Enough of those kind of throws cause two things to happen. Defensive players overreact and try to do too much, which usually results in coverage breakdowns and much easier completions. Defensive coordinators in turn respond by playing more vanilla defenses which clear the picture up for the quarterback.
As much as Lawrence’s natural passing ability opens up the Jaguar’s offense, his decision making often sets it back. Take this disastrous interception against the Cardinals:
The Jaguar’s ran another NFL staple, the flea-flicker. After taking the handoff, the running back flipped the football back to Lawrence who was looking to strike deep down the field against a defense that was playing the run. Unfortunately for Lawrence, pressure was immediately in his face. Instead of taking a sack, or legally throwing the ball away, he lofts up a lazy, slow pass 30 yards across the field. Arizona easily intercepts it and runs to the end zone.
The in-play decision was bad by Lawrence, to put it mildly. Throwing the football late and slow across the field is a recipe for disaster. But the timing of Lawrence’s error makes his decision that much worse. Prior to the interception, the Jaguars are up 19-17 in the final seconds of the third quarter. It’s 2nd and 6 from their own 25 yard line. Taking a sack and eventually punting means the Jaguars have a 4th quarter lead and the trailing Cardinals have to drive to take the lead. Even if the Cardinals do score again, Lawrence will have at least 1 chance to respond. And if the Jaguars stop Arizona, the Jaguars could mount a drive of their own to extend their lead. The even better alternative for Lawrence instead of taking the sack would be to throw the ball at the feet of his running back or tight end, who are both currently blocking. Because both players are eligible receivers, intentional grounding wouldn’t be called. So Lawrence would then be faced with a manageable 3rd and 6 still with the ball and the lead.
This kind of decision making is especially concerning. Rookie quarterbacks are prone to mistakes, but Lawrence was supposed to be the exception. He had appeared in multiple matchups against elite competition in big games in college. The NFL stage was a relatively minor jump, at least compared to other rookies. There is a very real concern that the talent level that Lawrence played with at Clemson may have masked some of his deficiencies. Lawrence was rarely in strenuous environments in college. Clean pockets and favorable matchups with his receivers were an every-weekend occurrence. He simply never had to make difficult decisions. Now that he faces them all the time, there are real questions on his learning curve. Will he improve enough to allow the Jaguars to take advantage of his unreal talent? The entire Jaguar organization has no choice but to hope that he does.