As college football gear up for the 2025 season, the Nebraska Cornhuskers are quietly building momentum and the data suggests their competition better be very nervous. Behind head coach Matt Rule, Nebraska appears to be on the cusp of a significant breakthrough. Rhule has made a career out of being a turnaround artist and it looks like his long-running plan in Nebraska is on the verge of coming to fruition.
According to SI.com, in a recent press conference Matt Rule shared candid remarks about Nebraska’s program and his vision for its future. Reflecting on the program’s prior struggles, Rule acknowledged his predecessor’s challenges, agreeing with comments that the job “wasn’t a good job” at the time. However, Rule painted a hopeful picture:
“We have made it a good job, and we’re about to make it a great job. This will be one of the best jobs in the country.”
Rule likened Nebraska’s situation to owning a beautiful mansion with terrific bones—rich tradition (five national championships), a passionate fan base considered the best in football, and significant infrastructural investments like new facilities. He emphasized that these factors convinced him and his family that Nebraska was the right place to rebuild.
Matt Rule’s track record for rebuilding programs is well documented, especially his recent tenures at Baylor and Temple. A close comparison of Nebraska’s current performance trajectory with Baylor’s during Rule’s tenure reveals striking similarities in both:
The data strongly suggests Nebraska is following the same upward trajectory that led Baylor from struggling to national relevance in just a few seasons under Rule’s leadership.
There is additional data that supports the theory that Nebraska is going to breakout in 2025. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) Nebraska has slowly been accumulating talent. FPI looks at the current roster and simulates how successful that roster will be. It’s a good barometer to use over time to evaluate a programs development (or in some cases, regression). A quick look at Nebraska’s FPI reveals a similar trend that the other graphs outlined:
- After 2023, Nebraska was rated a lowly 0.8, reflecting a poor roster outlook.
- Following 2024, Nebraska leapt to 6.9.
- Preseason 2025 FPI has Nebraska at 9.3, indicating a team likely to win 8 to 10 games.
While FPI and PFF reveal that there is solid theoretical backing behind the Cornhuskers breakout out, what does reality say? Let’s take a look at the schedule:
- Home games against Michigan (with a young quarterback), USC, and Iowa provide key opportunities for signature wins.
- Road trips to Minnesota and Penn State present tests, with Penn State a likely loss
- Other matchups with Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Maryland offer winnable games.
Altogether, a realistic outlook suggests Nebraska could finish anywhere from 9 to 11 wins, contending strongly for a top-15 national ranking and a postseason berth.
While Nebraska is not without flaws and question marks, the overall picture signals consistent improvement. And looking at Matt Rule’s previous programs, a pattern emerges of a slow start, followed by sharp improvement in year two, and then breakout success in year three:
- Temple went from 2-10 in Year 1 to a 10-win season by Year 3.
- Baylor moved from one win to 11 wins over three seasons and held long winning streaks.
If Nebraska follows that script, 2025 could be their breakthrough year, with the team building momentum to challenge the best in the Big 10. It’s no longer unrealistic to imagine Nebraska contending for major wins, pulling off upset victories, and perhaps even making the College Football Playoff.
Disclaimer: The content of this article was originally published as a YouTube video on the SMI College Football Show YouTube channel. With AI assistance, the publisher of the video created this article based on the content of that video.
