The Odd Couple: Kyle Shanahan & Jimmy G

When it comes to the San Francisco 49ers there are two points that are widely believed to be the truth:

1. Kyle Shanahan is a great coach

2. Jimmy Garoppolo is a mediocre quarterback who his holding back the true potential of the 49ers

The first point is easily defendable. As offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons from 2015-2016, Shanahan orchestrated an offense that allowed Matt Ryan to have the best years of his career. In 2016 Ryan won the NFL MVP and marched off to the Super Bowl. Shanahan rode this success to the head coaching position of the 49ers. Atlanta and Matt Ryan hasn’t been the same since he left.

·         Matt Ryan 2015-2016 under Shanahan, 102.1 Passer Rating, 8.3 Yards/Attempt

·         Matt Ryan 2017-Present without Shanahan, 95.3 Passer Rating, 7.5 Yards Per Attempt

Shanahan reshaped the 49er roster by drafting heavy on the defense and trading for Garoppolo from the New England Patriots. In 2019, Shanahan led the 49ers to a 13-3 record and the number 1 seed in the NFC. After running through NFC Playoffs, the 49ers surged to a 10 point  fourth quarter lead against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for Shanahan, Patrick Mahomes did Patrick Mahomes things and finished the game on a 21-0 run and defeated the 49ers.

Much of the blame from the less fell on Garoppolo. His inability to move the ball in the 4th quarter (including missing a wide open Emmanuel Sanders for a potentially game winning touchdown), allowed Kansas City to claim victory. Critics noticed that he only attempted 57 total passes in three postseason games, throwing 2 TDs and 3 Interceptions. Prevailing wisdom was that Shanahan’s scheme and talented roster building carried the 49ers while Garoppolo was a game manager asked to not screw it up.

Despite the loss, no one was willing to shake up the situation in the bay area. Even if Garoppolo’s play was an issue, it wasn’t severe enough to warrant a change. They went into the 2020 season as an easy Super Bowl favorite but thanks to numerous injuries, including to Garoppolo, the 49ers limped to a 6-10 season and missed the playoffs. For the third time in his career (and second as a 49er) Garoppolo ended the season hurt. Rumors swirled that the 49ers would potentially look to move off of him for the 2021 season.

The 49ers answered this rumor in the 2021 draft by trading 2 future first round picks and a third to move up to the number 3 position in the draft to select Quarterback Trey Lance from North Dakota State. Lance was considered a developmental prospect coming into the draft with comparisons to Josh Allen & Pat Mahomes. The prevailing wisdom was that Lance would compete with Garoppolo for playing time and potentially replace him mid season.

In 2021, the 49ers have overcome a slow start and find themselves in the playoff race. Yet they are far outside the top level of contenders in the NFC. They aren’t even among the top 2 teams in their division. Fellow wunderkind head coaches Sean McVay in Los Angeles and Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona have their teams multiple games in front of San Francisco. While no one is seriously calling for Shanahan to be replaced, its been hard to ignore the real rumblings about his abilities as a head coach. The original idea that Garoppolo was a short term stop-gap that was holding back Shanahan’s game planning genius has been called into question.

After the slow start this year from San Francisco, the reality of Shanahan’s record as a coach has presented itself:

With Jimmy Garoppolo: 30-13, 69% winning percentage.

Without Jimmy Garoppolo: 7-28, 20% winning percentage

The bluntness of those results are pretty clear. With Garoppolo, the 49ers are an elite team. Without him, they have a Houston/Jacksonville/Detroit level of futility. Even if the 1st season is removed, where Shanahan had taken over a devastated roster, the results don’t look much better:

With Jimmy Garoppolo: 25-13, 66%

Without Jimmy Garoppolo: 6-18, 25%.

Elite level coaches have proven that they can win games and even make playoff runs after losing their primary starter. Bill Belichick used journeyman Matt Cassell in 2007 and went 11-5. In 2016 he repeated the feat by going 3-1 without Brady and now is heading to the playoffs with Mac Jones. Mike Tomlin went 8-8 without Ben Roethlisberger in 2019. Andy Reid won 50 games with Alex Smith from 2013 to 2017 without a single losing season during that stretch.   Even disappointing coaches like the Bears Matt Nagy have had some level of success without elite level quarterbacking. The Bears went 16-16 from 2019-2020 with bust Mitchel Trubisky pulling the strings of the Bears offense. Shanahan hasn’t even sniffed that level of success without Jimmy G behind the helm.

So the idea that Shanahan is a great coach and Garoppolo is barley capable has proven to be an oversimplified, if not completely incorrect, assessment. The reality is that the coach and quarterback have found that they need each other for success. Garoppolo has limitations, but his ball handling and willingness to defer to Shanahan’s schemes has proven to be invaluable. The 49ers offense features numerous different running plays out of many formations. This would force any quarterback to focus on footwork and ball handling not related to the passing game. It’s hard to imagine veteran QBs, such as Carson Wentz or Matt Stafford, being willing to switch their games so late in their careers. It would also take a young QB multiple off seasons to master the finer points of the offense. The 49ers organization is built to be competitive now and will not have the patience to work through a young quarterback’s growth.

The end result is that Shanahan and Garoppolo, for better or worse, are stuck with each other. If the past few seasons are any indication, the pair will find success. Shanahan may roll his eyes with the turnovers and the opportunities missed. He may pine for an elite player at the quarterback position that could not just run his offense, but take it to the next level. But unless Trey Lance makes significant improvement and develops into a Mahomes like player, Shanahan is forced to send out Garoppolo.  Without him, Shanahan knows he could easily be unemployed.